What We Know
From an air pollution perspective, we have substantial information — how much pollution there is, where it is, and when it occurs. India has a good understanding of the sources contributing to this problem, both at the urban and regional scale, from a mix of monitoring-based source apportionment studies and emissions-based modelling studies.
The intensities of these emission sources are known with some uncertainty, but there is full certainty on the kinds of sources contributing to the problem. There is clear recognition of five major contributing sectors: transport (covering road, rail, shipping, and aviation), domestic cooking and heating, industries (heavy and light), road and construction dust, and waste management.
Air quality dialogues in India bring together a range of stakeholders: ministries, local public bodies, line department heads, scientists, data analysts, and the public. These dialogues rely heavily on data, and the data is, for the most part, available (with a * on the side — quantity is limited and improving).
Despite this wealth of data, understanding, and a broad coalition of participants, meaningful action remains delayed.
Core Question
If we know the sources, and we have the data, then why is there still a delay in making the right decisions to target emissions from all these known sectors? Why is there a delay in putting down accountable targets for these sectors?
The answer is not what most people assume. The missing piece is not “more data”. What is truly absent goes deeper than data and changes the entire line of thinking.
Three interconnected gaps define what is missing:
- The Pathway: There is no clear, long-term (10-15 year) time-bound pathway from the current baseline to actionable targets for each sector. Without a defined pathway, line departments cannot make accountable decisions on how much needs to be done and what needs to be done. A pathway must translate from high-level ambition to department-level action.
- Commitment from Stakeholders: There is an absence of commitment from different stakeholders to act. Negotiations often produce analysis without resolution. This leads to analysis paralysis — an endless deferral of decisions on how much action is to be taken and who is responsible for this action, rather than movement toward accountable, sector-specific targets.
- A Clear Communication Pathway: There is no clear communication pathway from the officials who make decisions, to the bodies who carry out those decisions, to the people who are ultimately affected. Without this chain, accountability is diffuse and action remains aspirational rather than operational.
A Solution: Visualizing the Pathway
To address this gap, a tool has been developed that allows stakeholders to (a) visualize the baseline trend in pollution levels (b) quantify the exposure burden under this baseline (c) visualize the target and the pathway toward it and put forward a mathematical solution that line departments can use to negotiate actionable and accountable targets.
The goal is to give all stakeholders in these dialogues, a shared, concrete view of where we are, where we need to go, and how to get there. In other words, one, how much reduction in contributions do we need from various contributing sectors and two, how to achieve those reductions.
The data was never the problem. The pathway was missing.
Delhi has seen many action plans (dating back to 1990s) aimed at controlling air pollution across the city and its airshed (NCR). Each of these plans lists a number of interventions, with the expectation that change will follow (and benefits will be immediate). But all of these plans share a common missing element — a pathway. How will these changes actually come about? How long will it take for these interventions to become operational? And who will be held responsible for seeing them through? Without answers to these questions, even the most well-intentioned action plans risk remaining on paper.
Delhi has judicial oversight through bodies such as EPCA (in the past) and currently as CAQM.
Download the tool and a case study application for Delhi here [link]